Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 18.636250 20.215817 21.953125 24.022603 26.443509 29.215378 32.673383
2024-10-06 16.135648 18.197393 20.626830 23.760051 27.788130 32.938607 40.293040
2024-10-13 14.470711 16.784444 19.653697 23.591651 29.069592 36.808866 49.459294
2024-10-20 13.107010 15.510051 18.602814 23.052493 29.644553 39.787055 58.617449
2024-10-27 12.536506 15.146820 18.640947 23.935234 32.369357 46.788374 78.701740
2024-11-03 11.747073 14.391219 18.026003 23.736552 33.330551 51.143806 97.188438
2024-11-10 11.162792 13.849246 17.633809 23.786988 34.679077 56.721805 125.136971
2024-11-17 10.693332 13.419169 17.346215 23.939412 36.218453 63.384170 168.315169
2024-11-24 10.275006 13.023292 17.061620 24.040741 37.669482 70.614105 235.380349
2024-12-01 9.830205 12.553628 16.616054 23.796344 38.360022 76.311324 323.728644
2024-12-08 9.489054 12.212287 16.338341 23.806159 39.590004 84.432070 514.545573
2024-12-15 9.138388 11.833356 15.967681 23.595504 40.279109 91.423618 871.453378
2024-12-22 8.798101 11.455816 15.579166 23.321973 40.810839 98.624908 1874.673852
2024-12-29 8.499153 11.125867 15.246014 23.118315 41.485992 107.288736 10943.150341
2025-01-05 8.236096 10.837488 14.961702 22.977913 42.304069 117.768912 NaN
2025-01-12 7.931148 10.468768 14.517888 22.470791 42.038598 122.875407 NaN
2025-01-19 7.871463 10.482594 14.726730 23.320022 45.792790 157.366335 NaN
2025-01-26 7.652836 10.231434 14.457242 23.131687 46.470517 173.860960 NaN
2025-02-02 7.484650 10.053665 14.305604 23.180800 47.919978 201.376208 NaN
2025-02-09 7.341168 9.909155 14.203509 23.327093 49.754712 240.924931 NaN
2025-02-16 7.199549 9.761187 14.085527 23.424253 51.480462 290.570835 NaN
2025-02-23 7.022249 9.547168 13.834773 23.190363 51.967513 327.717638 NaN
2025-03-02 6.886581 9.397057 13.693712 23.199794 53.397096 399.302802 NaN